The short answer

  • Yes: $1 million at 50 supports $3,800 a month after tax for Dave, with $906K left at 90.
  • He lives entirely on his savings for 15 years before CPP and OAS, and pays $3,110 of tax in his first year.
  • Keeping his travel budget until 75 instead of 60 costs him about $250,000 by 90.

Estimates from Scenario Lab+, in today's dollars.

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Retiring at 50 means paying for 15 years before OAS starts, and at least 10 before CPP can. That's a long time to live on savings, and it's the part of an early retirement most people worry about. It's also the part with the most room to plan, because for those 15 years you have almost no other taxable income.

Here at Loonie Nest, our mission is to provide free and affordable personal finance education to Canadians so they can gain confidence in their retirement.

Dave's plan at a glance

On track

$1,000,000

saved at 50

RRSP

$550,000

Taxed as income when withdrawn

TFSA

$180,000

Withdrawals are tax-free

Non-registered

$270,000

Only the capital gain is taxed

Spending after tax, in today's dollars

CPP $800 a month from 65

OAS $742 a month from 65

Our $1 Million Retirement Scenario

Let's meet Dave. He's 50, single, and living in Kamloops, BC. He ran IT for a regional trucking company for most of his career, saving through the company's group RRSP and putting extra into his TFSA and a non-registered account. He has $1 million, a paid-off house, and a list of places he wants to see while he's young enough to enjoy them.

We'll run Dave's numbers through Scenario Lab+.

Scenario Lab+ is our proprietary retirement planning software. We'll use it to generate and review a tailored retirement plan for him.

To start, here's how Dave's numbers look as he retires at 50:

Dave's plan inputs in Scenario Lab+: profile, account balances, CPP and OAS, monthly expenses, and spending phases.Dave's plan inputs: his profile, account balances, CPP and OAS, and monthly spending.

His $1 million is spread across three accounts. He has $550,000 in his RRSP, $180,000 in his TFSA, and $270,000 in a non-registered account.

Dave's CPP is $800 a month at 65. His Statement of Contributions assumes he stops contributing at 50, and 15 empty years pull the amount well below what a full career would pay. He gets the full OAS at 65. If you want a refresher on how both programs work, see our guide to CPP and OAS.

He spends more in his first ten years. Dave's plan starts at $3,800 a month while he travels, drops to $3,200 at 60, and to $3,000 at 80. Scenario Lab+ lets you set your own Spending Phases, with your own ages and amounts, rather than assuming everyone slows down at 75.

A growth portfolio over a long horizon. He expects his investments to grow 6% a year, and we plan his retirement to age 90.

A few other important assumptions: all figures are in today's dollars, Dave is single and owns his home with no mortgage, and inflation runs at 2.5% a year.

Dave's retirement budget

Here is how his $3,800 a month breaks down in his first ten years:

CategoryMonthlyAnnual
Housing (property tax, utilities, insurance, upkeep)$1,200$14,400
Food and dining$650$7,800
Health and dental$300$3,600
Travel$900$10,800
Everything else (car, gifts, entertainment)$750$9,000
Total$3,800$45,600

A budget like this is lean for a single person, which is a common trade-off for retiring this early. Our guide to the best places to retire in Canada compares what it costs to live in different cities and regions.

Is $1 Million Enough to Retire at 50?

Scenario Lab+'s overview of Dave's plan: on track, with $905,732 left at 90.Scenario Lab+'s results for Dave's plan.

For Dave, the results say yes, with a wide margin. His plan covers his spending every year and still has $905,732 left at 90. Scenario Lab+ estimates he could spend about $841 more a month and still make it.

He draws $48,710 from his savings in his first year, about 4.9% of his portfolio, which is above the 4% rule. It works because his spending drops at 60, CPP and OAS take over part of the load at 65, and a 6% growth rate keeps his savings growing once his withdrawals fall.

Bridging the 15 Years to 65

From 50 to 64, everything Dave spends comes from his savings. His portfolio falls from $1 million to about $751,000 at 64, the low point of his whole plan.

At 65 his CPP and OAS start, and together they pay $18,508 a year. From then on he only needs to draw about $22,000 a year from his savings, and his investments earn more than that. His portfolio grows for the rest of his life.

How Much Income Does $1 Million Provide?

In his first year of retirement, Dave draws on three accounts:

Dave's retirement income by year, stacked by source. CPP and OAS start at 65.Where Dave's income comes from each year, by source.

SourceAge 50Age 65Taxable?
CPP$0$9,600Yes
OAS$0$8,908Yes
RRSP withdrawals$26,790$11,917Yes
TFSA withdrawals$8,768$3,900No
Non-registered withdrawals$13,152$5,850Only the capital gain
Gross income$48,710$40,175
Income tax$3,110$1,775
Spending money$45,600$38,400
Scenario Lab+

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How Much Tax Dave Pays

Dave's tax calculation for age 50.Dave's tax bill in his first year of retirement, at age 50.

Dave pays $3,110 in income tax in his first year, about 6.4% of his income. Over his whole retirement he pays $119,393.

His bill is low because so little of his income is taxable. His TFSA withdrawals are tax-free, only part of each non-registered withdrawal is a capital gain, and the basic personal amount covers the first part of the rest. At 71 his RRSP becomes a RRIF, the minimum withdrawal roughly doubles what he takes from it, and his tax rises to about $3,100 a year again.

How His Plan Changes Over Time

Scenario Lab+'s year-by-year table for Dave, showing each account balance from 50.Year-by-year account balances from 50.

At 60, his spending steps down. His travel years end and his budget falls to $3,200 a month.

At 65, CPP and OAS start. His withdrawals from savings fall by almost half.

At 71, his RRSP becomes a RRIF. The minimum withdrawal is more than he needs, so the extra goes back into his TFSA and non-registered account. Our RRIF guide covers the rules.

At 90, he still has $905,732. That's $179,783 in his RRIF, $318,453 in his TFSA, and $407,496 in his non-registered account.

Based on his numbers, Scenario Lab+ estimates Dave could spend about $841 more every month and still make it to 90.

Dave's available income compared with his spending target.Income available to Dave compared with what he plans to spend.

But What If We Change the Assumptions?

Dave's plan has room to spare, so we looked at the choices an early retiree actually faces, changing one assumption at a time.

4 versions of Dave's plan

One assumption changed in each. Charts show the portfolio from 50 to 90 in Scenario Lab+.

Dave's base plan

Scenario Lab+ portfolio chart, Dave's base plan: $1,000,000 at 50, $905,732 left at 90.
Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$905,732

Draws a steady taxable income

Scenario Lab+ portfolio chart, Draws a steady taxable income: $1,000,000 at 50, $838,147 left at 90.
Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$838,147

Delays CPP to 70

Scenario Lab+ portfolio chart, Delays CPP to 70: $1,000,000 at 50, $914,950 left at 90.
Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$914,950

Keeps travelling until 75

Scenario Lab+ portfolio chart, Keeps travelling until 75: $1,000,000 at 50, $653,177 left at 90.
Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$653,177

Scenario 1

Draws a steady taxable income

Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$838,147

From 50 to 64 Dave's taxable income is low, because he has no salary, CPP, or OAS. What if he uses those years to draw down his RRSP on purpose, at a steady taxable income, instead of drawing from every account in proportion? Scenario Lab+ runs this as its Tax Bracket Smoothing strategy, with a target he sets.

At a target of about $55,000 of taxable income, he takes $53,000 a year from his RRSP and nothing from his other accounts. His tax in those years rises to $7,400. His RRSP is empty by 63, and from then on his income is CPP, OAS, and non-registered withdrawals, and he pays almost no tax at all: $432 at 65.

Over his whole retirement he pays $104,117 in tax, about $15,000 less than his original plan. He finishes at 90 with $838,147, about $68,000 less, but none of it is in an RRSP or RRIF. His original plan still has $179,783 in his RRIF at 90, which is taxable when it comes out or when he dies, so the real gap is smaller than it looks.

The Drawdown tab compares four strategies for the same plan:

Cumulative tax paid by each drawdown strategy for Dave's plan.Cumulative tax under each drawdown strategy in the Drawdown tab.

Scenario 2

Delays CPP to 70

Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$914,950

CPP rises 42% if you start at 70 instead of 65. With 15 years of savings behind him, what if Dave waits?

He'd receive $13,632 a year instead of $9,600. He draws a little more from his savings from 65 to 69 to cover the gap, and finishes at 90 with $914,950, about $9,000 more. He pays about $7,600 more tax over his retirement, because more of his income is now CPP.

For Dave, at a planning age of 90, the two choices come out close. Delaying CPP is a bet on living a long time. Our CPP and OAS break-even calculator shows where that line falls for you.

Scenario 3

Keeps travelling until 75

Spends at 50
$45,600/yr
Money lasts
Past 90
Left at 90
$653,177

Dave planned to slow his travel at 60. What if he keeps his $3,800 budget until 75, as many retirees do?

His plan still works. He finishes at 90 with $653,177, about $250,000 less than his original plan, and Scenario Lab+ estimates he would still have about $547 a month of room. For someone who retired at 50 to travel, fifteen more years of it is a reasonable use of the margin.

Your $1 Million Is Not Dave's $1 Million

So can you retire at 50 with $1 million? Dave can, on a lean budget with room to spare. But his plan is a starting point, not an answer for anyone else.

Retiring at 50 depends heavily on what you spend, because every dollar of it comes from your savings for 15 years. A budget $1,000 a month higher, or a smaller CPP, can change the answer. For the same savings at 55, see Nicole's plan. For $1 million at 60, see Michael's plan.

The bigger risk for an early retiree is not knowing how long the bridge to 65 can safely run.

That's why we built Scenario Lab+.

It is the software behind every number in this article. Give it your own accounts and spending, and it builds the same year-by-year plan for you, including every what-if above. If you'd like to see it first, Dave's full plan is open to explore.

Scenario Lab+

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Enter your own savings, benefits, and spending in Scenario Lab+ to see whether your number is enough and what happens when your assumptions change.

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